Londoners overestimate crime rates, King's College study finds
Research indicates public perception of safety and crime levels in the capital is significantly higher than official figures.
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Londoners significantly overestimate the prevalence of crime in the capital and the extent to which residents feel unsafe, according to research from King's College London. Surveys indicated that people believed 30% of Londoners had personally experienced a crime in the year to September 2025, whereas official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) place this figure at 12.2%.
The research, part of the Mistaken Britain programme, involved two YouGov surveys conducted between 23 and 27 March 2026, encompassing 2,164 and 3,969 adults respectively. These perceptions were compared against data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales, Home Office crime statistics, and official surveys on public feelings of safety.
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Perceptions versus Reality
Respondents to the surveys also overestimated the risk of violent crime, with half believing London had the highest rate of any region in England and Wales in the year to September 2025. However, police-recorded crime data revealed London actually had the lowest rate of violent crime across all regions. Furthermore, 62% of people thought overall crime in London had risen between 2019 and 2025, when in reality, it had decreased by 1.4%.
Beliefs about personal safety also showed a significant gap. While 60% of respondents thought Londoners do not feel safe walking alone after dark, the actual figure reported by residents was 37%. Londoners surveyed themselves slightly overestimated this, with half estimating that figure.
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Specific Offence Increases
Despite the general overestimation of crime levels, research participants were often accurate in identifying increases in specific offences. A majority correctly noted rises in shoplifting and theft from the person, both of which more than doubled between 2019 and 2025. Similarly, many correctly perceived increases in sexual offences and violence against the person.
More recent Metropolitan Police figures confirm these perceptions for certain crimes, showing sexual offences rose by 4.2% and violence against the person by 7.0% in the year to July 2026. The Metropolitan Police reported that a major operation targeting phone theft led to 13,000 fewer mobile phones being stolen across London between June 2025 and June 2026.
Online Disinformation Campaign
Concerns about the portrayal of London have been raised by the Mayor of London and the Greater London Authority (GLA). A GLA report published in March found that online content describing London as a dangerous city increased by between 150% and 200% between March 2024 and March 2026. Migration-related narratives referencing the capital rose by over 350% in the same period.
In response, Sir Sadiq Khan launched a £7m campaign in June aimed at showcasing London and combating online disinformation. He described the city as facing a "relentless and unprecedented attack of lies and hatred" on social media, suggesting foreign state actors and others are exploiting online algorithms for profit.
The Mayor also highlighted that investment in the Met Police and the Violence Reduction Unit had contributed to a 14% reduction in neighbourhood crime. He stated his determination to build on this progress with "record investment in front-line policing".
London's Polarising Image
The King's College London report identifies London as the UK's most polarising city. While 42% of respondents viewed it favourably, 36% held an unfavourable view, a narrower margin than for other major UK cities. Over half (54%) believe London has worsened since 2016, compared to 16% who think it has improved.
Questions this report answers
+What percentage of Londoners actually experienced crime?
According to ONS figures, 12.2% of Londoners experienced a crime between October 2024 and September 2025. This is significantly lower than the 30% figure believed by survey respondents in a King's College London study.
+How does London's violent crime rate compare to other regions?
Contrary to the belief of half of survey respondents, police-recorded crime data shows London had the lowest rate of violent crime of any region in England and Wales in the year to September 2025.
+What is being done about the negative portrayal of London online?
The Mayor of London launched a £7m campaign in June to showcase the city and combat online disinformation. This follows a GLA report indicating a significant increase in online content describing London as dangerous.
+Has overall crime in London increased?
No, nearly two-thirds of people surveyed believed overall crime in London had increased between 2019 and 2025. In reality, police figures show it had fallen slightly by 1.4% over that period.
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