Europe must face hard winter to keep pressure on Russia, says UK adviser

Jonathan Powell, the UK national security adviser, has stated that Europe must be ready to endure "real hardship" this winter to maintain economic pressure on Russia. In public remarks made at a conference in Kyiv, Powell asserted that Europe's strategy of supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow is proving effective. He suggested that talk of Russian escalation is a sign of success, indicating that pressure on President Vladimir Putin is yielding results.

Powell advised against European nations easing sanctions, even with the prospect of severe energy shortages this winter. He also advocated for continued contact between the US and Europe with President Putin, despite describing the Russian leader as a "terrorist". Powell believes Ukraine has already achieved a form of victory, as Putin will not be able to seize the entire country, and a free Ukraine will be able to determine its own future.

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Economic Impact on Ukraine

The ongoing conflict has had a substantial economic impact on Ukraine. Oleksandr Kravchenko, Ukraine's minister of economy, informed the conference that Russian attacks this year are projected to have caused $10 billion in damage to infrastructure and assets. He also noted that Ukraine's GDP is expected to contract by 1.5% due to the blockade of its sea ports, which is hindering grain exports.

EU Gas Strategy Concerns

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Europe is preparing for winter amidst a global energy crisis and with low gas reserves. While sanctions have led to a significant reduction in Russian gas consumption by the EU, some countries are reportedly hesitant to fully cease imports. The European Court of Auditors recently indicated that the EU's plan to completely phase out Russian gas imports by January is "faltering", with the bloc currently still importing 12% of its gas from Russia.

Powell emphasised the need to "keep the pressure up" on Putin, stating, "What we don't want to do at this stage is take our foot off the gas - and literally, gas could be the problem as we come into the winter, where the EU is going to have real problems of shortage, and we cannot turn that into an advantage for Putin." He acknowledged that this would require "real hardship and difficulties on our parts" but stressed the necessity of maintaining economic, military, political, and diplomatic support for Ukraine.

Despite acknowledging current difficulties in Ukraine, including Russian attacks and a government budget deficit, Powell expressed optimism. He pointed to Ukraine's successful defence of its front lines, significant Russian casualties, successful Ukrainian strikes within Russian territory, and the continued solidarity of Europe as reasons for hope. He also suggested that former US President Donald Trump's stance on Ukraine has shifted positively.

Powell stated that the strategy is to apply sufficient pressure to encourage Putin towards negotiation. He views reported Russian escalations not as a problem but as a sign that existing pressures are beginning to be effective. He also highlighted the importance of maintaining communication channels with Russia to avoid miscalculation and understand each other's red lines, drawing a parallel to his past work on negotiating with terrorist groups.

He concluded that the war is fundamentally about Ukraine's right to independence, and that regardless of territorial gains or losses, Ukraine's existence as a free, independent, and European nation represents a significant threat to Putin domestically. Ukrainian authorities have begun evacuating residents from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the eastern Donbas region, a key objective for Russia.